Virginia: Learn From Michigan’s Horrendous Mistake

The High Cost of Right to Work Repeal

Virginia vs. Michigan: 20-Year Economic Comparison (2006–mid-2026)

Virginia (longstanding Right to Work state since 1947) and Michigan (Right to Work 2013–Feb 2024, repealed thereafter) show clear divergence over the past two decades. Virginia’s diversified economy (federal government, defense, tech, professional services) contrasts with Michigan’s manufacturing/auto-heavy base.

1. Real GDP Growth (Cumulative & Average)

• Virginia: Stronger long-term growth. Cumulative real GDP growth since 2006 exceeded 80–85% in many analyses (outpacing Michigan significantly). Virginia ranked higher in long-term growth maps (e.g., 81% cumulative in some 1998–2024 datasets).
• Michigan: Lagged with only 30% cumulative growth in similar long-term periods (one of the weakest among states, tied to industrial decline pre-2013 and post-repeal softness). Average annual growth trailed Virginia.

Trend: Virginia consistently outperformed in output growth, especially post-Great Recession.

2. GDP Per Capita (2023 Latest Comparable Full Year)

• Virginia: $82,418–$82,443
• Michigan: $66,966

Virginia maintains a substantial lead (~23% higher), reflecting higher-wage sectors and productivity.

3. Unemployment Rate Trends

Virginia has maintained lower and more stable unemployment over 20 years:

Period	Virginia Avg/Trend	Michigan Avg/Trend
2006–2012	4.0–5.0% (stable)	High (peaked 12–14% post-recession)
2013–2023	Declined to 2.5–3.5% lows	Improved under Right to Work Laws to 3.7–4.0%
2024–mid-2026	3.6–3.8%	Post Right to Rise despite gigantic government subsidies. Rose to 5.0% (April 2026)

• Virginia: Consistently ranks better nationally. Current (April 2026): 3.8%.
• Michigan: Higher volatility; significant rise post-RTW repeal.

4. Per Capita Personal Income (2025)

• Virginia: $80,291
• Michigan: $66,556

Virginia ranks much higher (20th nationally) vs. Michigan (40th).

5. Manufacturing & Job Growth

• Virginia: Smaller manufacturing base but steady gains (e.g., +4%+ in some 2010–2022 periods). Less cyclical.
• Michigan: Larger base with strong rebound during Right to Work decade (2013–2023: +10.9% growth), but losses quickly mount post-Right to Work Repeal (31K+ jobs 2024–2025) and long-term lag in recovery from early 2000s declines.

Overall job growth: Right to Work Virginia showed more resilience and positive net gains over the full 20 years.

6. Broader Rankings (Recent 2026)

• WalletHub Best Economies: Virginia ranked 15th; Michigan 25th.
• Virginia benefits stable Right to Work policy and sector diversity; Michigan shows policy sensitivity (improved under Right to Work, immediately weakened after repeal).

Summary (2006–mid-2026):

Virginia has significantly outperformed Michigan across nearly all major metrics: higher GDP growth, much higher per capita income and GDP, lower unemployment, and greater stability. Michigan experienced severe challenges in the early part of the period (pre-Right to Work) but showed meaningful recovery during its Right to Work decade, followed quickly by reversals after the 2024 repeal. Labor policy (Right to Work vs. Forced Unionism) and structural differences play key roles in the persistent gap. Data drawn from BLS, BEA, and comparative state analyses as of mid-2026.

The Two Michigans illustrate just how impactful Right to Work can be when injected into a former forced-unionism economy; and how tragic it can be when Right to Work is removed from a growing prospering economy.

Michigan with Right to Work (2013–early 2024) vs. Without Right to Work (Feb 2024–mid-2026)

Here is a more granular, data-rich comparison using official sources (BLS, BEA, state forecasts as of mid-2026).

1. Real GDP Growth (BEA Chained 2017 Dollars)

• Right to Work Period (2013–2023):
• Cumulative growth: +17.3% (from $472.8 billion in 2013 to $554.6 billion in 2023).
• Average annual growth: 1.45–1.6%. Several years posted stronger gains (2.4–2.8%) during post-recession recovery.
• Post-Right to Work Repeal (2024–2025) declines immediately felt:
  • 2024: +1.37% ($562.2 billion)
  • 2025: +1.19% ($568.9 billion)

Nominal GDP reached $747 billion by late 2025, but real (inflation-adjusted) growth slowed notably.

Deeper Insight: Post-repeal growth lagged both theRight to Work decade average and national trends in comparable periods. Michigan’s 5-year annualized GDP growth through 2026 ranks 42nd among states.

2. Unemployment Rate (BLS, Seasonally Adjusted)

• Right to Work Period: Reduced steadily from post-Great Recession highs to historic lows of 3.7–4.0% by late 2023 (20-year low).
• Post-Right to Work Repeal: Rose from 3.8% (early 2024) to 5.0% by late 2025 and held at 5.0% through April 2026. Unemployment increased in every Michigan county in the first full year after repeal.

Deeper Insight: As of April 2026, Michigan’s 5.0% rate tied for 43rd nationally (higher than most Right to Work states). Forecasts show it may edge to 5.1–5.2% later in 2026.

3. Manufacturing Employment (BLS, Seasonally Adjusted)

• RTW Period (2013–2023): Strong rebound with +10.9% growth (2013–2022). Added 80,000 jobs early in the Right to Work decade; sector approached full recovery from COVID by early 2024.
• Post-Repeal: Losses of 31,000+ jobs in 2024–2025.
  • April 2026: 579,400 jobs (down 1.7% year-over-year).
  • Recent monthly trend: Continued softness (e.g., 582,500 in Dec 2025 → 579,400 in Apr 2026).

Deeper Insight: Forecasts for 2026 project another 2,100 manufacturing job losses before possible modest recovery in 2027.

4. Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment

• Right to Work Period: Solid net gains, especially 2013–2019 and post-COVID recovery through 2023 (record high employment levels in 2023).
• Post-Right to Work Repeal:
  • Household survey employment down 50,000+ by Dec 2025 vs. early 2024.
  • 2025: Modest gains (+36,700), but 2026 forecasts show net losses of 2,000 to 5,900 jobs on a calendar-year basis.

Labor force participation has declined, masking some unemployment pressure.

5. Broader Competitiveness & Outlook

• Michigan dropped from 19th to 32nd in the 2026 Rich States, Poor States ranking — one of the largest declines recorded. Analysts cite Right to Work repeal, higher minimum wage, and tax increases as primary factors.
• The Economic Vitality Index (Upjohn Institute) showed modest county-level improvements in some areas through 2024 data, but overall state momentum has slowed.

Summary Table (Deeper Metrics)

Metric	With RTW (2013–2023)	Without RTW (2024–mid-2026)	Key Shift
Real GDP Avg Annual Growth	1.45–1.6%	1.19–1.37%	Slower
Unemployment Rate	Declined to 3.7–4.0%	Rose to & stabilized at 5.0%	+1.0–1.3 pts
Manufacturing Jobs	Grew +10.9% (strong gains)	Lost -31k+ jobs; further losses forecast	Reversal
Total Payroll Jobs (2026)	Strong recovery	Flat to negative (-2k to -6k forecast)	Stagnation
Economic Ranking	Improved (peaked 12–19th)	Sharp drop to 32nd	Major decline

Right to Work Laws: Protecting Economic Growth, Worker Freedom, and State Competitiveness

Right to Work (RTW) laws have delivered measurable economic benefits wherever enacted. During Virginia’s decade under Right to Work statutes, the state saw stronger manufacturing recovery, lower unemployment rates, and superior relative GDP growth compared to non-Right to Work states. The Right to Work States outperformed even the optimistic projections from supporters.

Studies consistently show Right to Work states outperform non-Right to Work counterparts in key metrics: faster private-sector employment growth (such as manufacturing growth), lower unemployment, higher population growth, and stronger output. Right to Work environments attract business investment by fostering flexibility and reducing artificial barriers imposed by compulsory unionism.

The High Costs of Repeal: Michigan’s Cautionary Tale

Michigan’s 2024 repeal of its Right to Work law provides a clear before-and-after comparison. Post-repeal performance has included slower job growth, rising unemployment (reaching among the highest in the nation in some periods), manufacturing setbacks, and weakened competitiveness. While other factors influence economies, the timing of the downturn aligns closely with the policy reversal, shifting the state from job gains to losses in key periods.

Critics, including labor economists and commentators like Robert Reich, long warned that Right to Work would devastate Michigan’s workers and economies—predictions that proved overwhelmingly wrong when Right to Work was in place. The reversal has instead highlighted just how wrong Right to Work opponents like Reich were: reduced worker choice, higher forced costs passed through contracts, and signals to businesses that the state prioritizes union power over broad economic vitality.

Forecasts point to continued challenges without course correction. Other policies matter, but undermining Right to Work removes a proven tool for attracting jobs and investment.

Virginia’s Smart Stand

Several efforts to repeal Virginia’s Right to Work law have failed, steering the state’s economy away from the economic edge. By preserving employee freedom and a competitive business climate, Virginia positions itself to capture the ongoing economic advantages and possibly attract businesses from states like California, New York, and Missouri.

This history should serve as a model. Governors and legislatures in other states should resist pressure to repeal Right to Work laws. The evidence from Michigan demonstrates the steep price of prioritizing compulsory unionism over individual rights and economic dynamism.

Broader Benefits and a National Opportunity

Right to Work is unquestionably pro-worker: it restores freedom of association in the workplace and ends forced union fees and lets employees choose for themselves, without coercion.

Based on Michigan’s economic rise under Right to Work, imagine the national economic surge from the National Right to Work Act—unleashing economic potentials in states like California, New York, Missouri, and a restored Michigan. Congress should advance a National Right to Work Act, though lawmakers from Right to Work states may resist increased competition.

Why Hold Your Citizens Back Any Longer?

Virginia shows the path forward: embrace Right to Work to safeguard freedoms, enhance opportunities for working men and women, and strengthen state economies. Michigan’s experience stands as a stark warning of economic self-harm and eroded worker rights. It may not be too late for Michigan to reverse course, but its residents are already bearing the tremendously high costs as a national example of what not to do.

Other states should learn from this. Repealing Right to Work trades short-term union boss and political gains for long-term declines in jobs, investment, and prosperity. Protecting it is smart policy for workers, families, and entire economies. Virginia and 25 other like-minded states are proving that freedom and economic growth go hand in hand.