Families With Children Keep Fleeing Forced-Unionism States

Yesterday the U.S. Census Bureau offered a preview of its age-segregated population data for the 50 states as of last summer by publishing the voting-age (18 and over) and total populations for every state, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.

For the purpose of forecasting the demographic future of America, state population trends for children (17 and under) are probably more important than adult population trends.  Fortunately, “17 and under” data can easily be derived from yesterday’s release by subtracting voting-age populations from total populations.

When juxtaposed against the July 1, 2012 state population totals for minors reported last spring, the new data show that families with children continued to flee from forced-unionism states over the last year.

From July 2012 through July 2013, the number of forced-unionism state residents aged 17 and under fell from  38.92 million to 38.72 million, or roughly 200,000.  Meanwhile, the number of Right to Work state residents in the same age bracket increased by 81,000.  (Since Michigan switched from forced-unionism when its Right to Work law took effect in March 2013, it is excluded from this analysis.)

Of the 17 states that suffered one-year “under 18” population declines of more than 0.5%, 15 lack Right to Work laws.  But five of the top six states for “under 18” population growth are Right to Work states.

The latest data represent a continuation of a long-term trend.  Unfortunately, demographers have not up to now tried to answer the question of why there is a such a large and persistent net migration of families with children to Right to Work states.  But it is reasonable to guess the most important factor is that Right to Work states offer employees with all education levels jobs that enable them to provide better living standards for their families, when regional differences in living costs are factored in.

From July 1, 2012 through July 1, 2013, the total population aged 17 and under fell by roughly 200,000 in forced-unionism states, but rose by 81,000 in Right to Work states. The availability of jobs that pay enough to support a family, when the regional cost of living is factored in, appears to be the key reason why. Image: frontporchrepublic.com

Estimates of State Voting-Age Population: July 1, 2013

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?fpt=table